Filed under: Euro 2012, Football, Match Previews, England Football
EURO 2012 QUALIFIER: MILLENNIUM STADIUM, SATURDAY, MARCH 26, 2011. KICK-OFF: 1500 GMTFollow Wales v England with our live minute-by-minute commentary
It is hardly surprising every England game these days feels like a one-off examination of Fabio Capello and his methods after the disaster of last year's World Cup.
On this occasion, however, the coach has gone out of his way to put his neck on the block after doing his level best to create a crisis where none previously existed with his cack-handed handling of the decision to restore John Terry to the captaincy.
Trailing Montenegro by three points at the head of Group G and having already dropped two home points to the unexpected leaders, England's primary focus should have been on taking three points from this cross-border skirmish.
Instead, the build-up has been dominated by talk of the possible rifts created within the England camp by Terry's reinstatement.
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England supporters must hope this is only a smokescreen and that when the match finally gets under way in Cardiff, Capello's team proves to be as superior to the home side on the pitch as it apears to be on paper.
The England coach has injury concerns and selection quandries - Frank Lampard in particular will be sweating on the final team-sheet - but they are nothing compared to the loss of Gareth Bale from the Wales line-up.
Gary Speed's side is not short of talent and England would be ill-advised to regard Bale's absence as debilitating to Wales, but the Spurs player has already demonstrated he can embarrass the world's best right backs this season and would have relished the prospect of facing the much less accomplished Glen Johnson.
Speed, the Wales coach, has already conceded his side's hopes of qualification are slim but national pride and prospect of beating their neighbours ensure the form book can be ignored.
Form Guide: England's campaign started well with victories over Bulgaria and Switzerland but the scoreless draw with Montenegro, followed by the humbling home defeat to France confirmed the weaknesses in Capello's squad. Victory in Denmark in a friendly in February, however, has revived confidence. Wales' campaign could not have started any more badly with three straight defeats, followed by the 3-0 friendly loss against the Republic of Ireland in Dublin in February. Already their thoughts are turning towards the 2014 World Cup.
Key Match-up: Craig Bellamy v John Terry: Choose your battleground and these two will fight on it. Bellamy was one of Terry's most outspoken critics when the defender was stripped of the England armband following allegations about his relationship with the ex-partner of Wayne Bridge, then Bellamy's teammate at Manchester City. Point to Bellamy. When the two players met on the pitch it was the same outcome with Bellamy running Terry ragged as City beat Chelsea 4-2 at Stamford Bridge last season. Game, set and match to the Welshman. If this match is to produce a shock, it's a reasonable bet these two players will be involved.
Odds: Wales 7/1, England 2/5, Draw 7/2
ENGLAND:
Capello's stature has not recovered from events in South Africa last summer and the knowledge he will be leaving the job as soon as England Euro 2012 campaign is over, only strengthens the impression that the national team is rudderless.
So far, though, the official message has been that the squad remains united with Capello firmly in control although Gareth Barry, the Manchester City midfielder, claims the atmosphere has lightened.
"On the training pitch nothing has changed. He's still pretty hands on," Barry told a media briefing. "If there's anything not right he's stamping down on it. Maybe around the hotel he's a little bit more relaxed.
"There was talk before about meetings and players turning up 20 minutes early. It was a bit more pressure on the players to be everywhere spot on the right time. It just seems the players are a bit more relaxed around the manager.
"The rules are still there and the players are still respecting them. But the players aren't on their toes looking over their shoulders thinking 'is the manager watching?' We can relax a bit more. The manager is not going to be on us 24/7. We can enjoy our time rather than worry about it. The feeling around the place is a lot more relaxed and more enjoyable."
Of course it may be that the players are no longer intimidated by Capello because his authority has been weakened, not least by the handling of the captaincy issue.
The Terry decision has dominated, but Capello insists this is precisely the kind of game that demands a leader with the Chelsea defender's qualities.
"Wales will be a tough game. The atmosphere, everything is incredible, and we need a captain with a big personality, a leader," Capello said.
"When John played without the armband, he was every time a leader. He is the biggest personality in the dressing room. He made mistakes but is normal. The players respect Terry as a leader, absolutely. One year's punishment is enough."
Strategy: Capello has refused to indicate who will start up front alongside Wayne Rooney although his admission that Andy Carroll lacks sufficient match fitness to play the whole game suggests Darren Bent or Peter Crouch will get the nod.
"I have monitored Andy Carroll in the games that he has played and I went to see him personally," he added. "He is not at the level that he played before he got injured, he is not fit to play for 90 minutes."
Capello's preference for playing two strikers, albeit with Rooney dropping off, increases the demands on the central midfielders and the praise lavished by the coach on Arsenal teenager Jack Wilshere suggests the youngster will be asked to assume greater responsibility in his first competitive start for his country.
"He (Wilshere) is a young player who has improved a lot in a short time. He was an interesting player, when he played his first game with us he was good, but young<" said Capello. "Now he is playing like a player who has played a lot of games, like a 28 or 29-year-old. He plays the game fantastically with personality and without fear.
"It's not easy to find players like him who play without fear in places like the Nou Camp. I spoke with Arsene (Wenger) and he told him he was also surprised by how he had improved so much in so short a time."
Scott Parker is expected to partner Wilshere at the expense of Frank Lampard and the midfield pairing but whatever the eventual line-up, England should have too much strength for Wales but this side has shown an enormous capacity for under-achievement and could fail again if they allow themselves to be panicked by a determined Welsh side.
Injury Update: Injuries to Rio Ferdinand and Steven Gerrard forced Capello's hand on the captaincy issue while the loss of Theo Walcott to an ankle problem has deprived England pf pace on the flanks. Keeper Ben Foster has withdrawn with a throat infection which means Robert Green will be promoted to the bench with Scott Carson coming into the squad.
WALES:
While new Wales manager Gary Speed is plotting England's downfall, he is already looking beyond the arrival of Capello's team.
Wales only have pride to play for but Speed wants to implement a new style and identity to take his country into the next World Cup qualifying campaign.
"I'm trying to be more forward thinking. It's not just about this game," he said. "We know even if we were to win the remaining five matches, it wouldn't be enough for us to qualify.
"What we need to do is be in a position where by the time the World Cup qualifiers come around, we're ready to hit the ground running."
Looking ahead to the visit of the Three Lions, Speed believes his players have the belief to cause an upset and Wales will also draw inspiration from Northern Ireland's shock win over England in 2005.
"The tempo will be high and it will be more of a British game than a typical international match," he added. "Although we know England have some great players who can win matches, so do we."
One potential matchwinner who he won't be available to call on is Bale and Speed admits it's a big blow to lose him, but refused to let the setback dampen the optimism in the Welsh camp.
He said: "Any team in the world miss him. Although this is a huge game and we would want Gareth in, we don't want to be putting him back for the rest of the season.
"If Wales are going to achieve anything the most important thing is the team. It gives someone else a chance to make sure they know their job. We've had a great week training and we are up for this game."
Strategy: Wales must adopt a high-tempo approach if they want to pull off a shock result. But their gameplan of using their pace on the flanks has been hit with Bale's absence. Expect Speed to deploy a new 4-4-3 formation to get the best out of his young side.
Injury Update: Aside from Bale's late withdrawal, Wales have not been hit by succession of injury withdrawals that was the trademark under former manager John Toshack. Sam Ricketts (knee) is out for the season, while Jack Collison is not ready to return and Robert Earnshaw (hamstring) misses out.
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