Filed under: Rugby Union, Rugby World Cup, Wales Rugby
RUGBY WORLD CUP, POOL D, WAIKATO STADIUM, SUNDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2011. KICK-OFF 0600 BSTWales are within sight of the World Cup quarter-finals.
In fact, it would take a freak result for them to miss out on the last eight, the target they had always set out to achieve, ahead of their final pool game with Fiji.
It has to go badly wrong for Wales to miss out on the knockout stages.
With all the permutations, the simplest calculation is if Warren Gatland's men avoid losing by 39 points they will have done enough to progress.
Samoa will be clinging onto the faint hope of a shock win for Fiji, and a hefty one in the process, for them to stand a chance of pipping Wales to second spot.
Such a scenario is clearly highly implausible.
Wales look in fine fettle while Fiji, who only have pride to play for, most probably have one eye on the journey home.
And another factor in the Dragons' armoury is their desire for revenge, as they look to erase the memory of a nightmare display that saw Fiji dump them out of the last World Cup four years ago.
Will history be repeated? Well, not if Mike Phillips has anything to do with it.
He said: "I was involved then and it wasn't very nice. I want to get one over Fiji, like we all do, and put that to bed."
FORM GUIDE: Wales bounced back from their narrow opening-game loss to record key successive wins over Samoa and Namibia. Fiji are heading home having just beaten Namibia.
ODDS: Wales 1/14, Fiji 7/1, Draw 40/1
THE BREAKDOWN:
THE FORWARDS:
Wales have rested Alun Wyn Jones but are bolstered with the fit-again Ryan Jones, Gethin Jenkins and Adam Jones all to figure. Fiji's Achilles heel remains in their set-piece game and expect Wales to take advantage of that.
Edge: Wales
THE BACKS:
No Shane Williams for Wales, saving him for bigger tests that surely lie ahead. But Jamie Roberts, who was left out against Namibia, will be licking his lips at facing the bruising Fijians. Nicky Little, who enjoyed a short stint during his club career in Wales, is Fiji's calming influence at fly-half.
Edge: Wales
THE BENCH:
There is plenty in reserve for Wales if required, with the likes of Stephen Jones and Andy Powell ready to offer fresh legs. Fiji have handed first World Cup starts to a host of players who had been warming the replacements bench in recent weeks with their hopes now ended.
Edge: Wales
THE COACHING:
This is a rare game Gatland can enjoy. The Kiwi knows it can only go badly wrong for his Welsh side not to progress.
Edge: Wales
FanHouse predicts: Wales by 12.
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Source: http://www.fanhouse.co.uk/2011/10/01/wales-v-fiji-preview-warren-gatlands-wales-within-touching-dis/
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